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長期エネルギー需給シナリオのマッピング法を用いた電源構成の選択肢評価

Choice evaluation of power supply composition using the mapping method of the long-term energy demand-and-supply scenario

立松 研二

Tatematsu, Kenji

原子力発電の利用規模及び二酸化炭素の排出抑制基準が異なる6種類のエネルギー需給シナリオを想定し、MARKALモデルを使用して、我が国を対象とした長期エネルギー需給を分析した。その結果、我が国全体及び発電部門における二酸化炭素排出量は、原子力発電を利用しない場合でも2050年において1990年の水準から、それぞれ37%及び47%の削減が可能であるが、一方で、原子力発電を段階的に廃止し、再生可能エネルギー及び天然ガスで代替した場合では、原子力発電や石炭の利用を継続した場合と比べて、平均発電単価が3.7円/kWh以上高いことが明らかになった。また、原子力発電を即時停止した場合では、現状の平均発電単価が4.4円/kWh上昇することも示された。発電部門におけるエネルギー源の多様性、二酸化炭素排出量及び平均発電単価を指標としたマッピングによる視覚化方法を新たに提案し、モデル分析の結果に基づいて、電源構成の変化による平均発電単価及び二酸化炭素排出量への影響を整理した結果、原子力発電を再生可能エネルギー、天然ガス又は石炭のいずれで代替した場合においても、原子力発電の全廃によって、エネルギー源の寡占化が大幅に進むことが明らかになった。これらの結果は、一定規模の原子力発電の利用を継続することにより、エネルギー源の寡占化を回避し、平均発電単価の大幅な上昇を抑えながら、二酸化炭素排出量を低減できることを示すものである。

Long-term energy demand-and-supply were analyzed for our country using the MARKAL model, supposing six kinds of energy demand-and-supply scenarios where different installed capacity of nuclear power generation and the emission standard of carbon-dioxide were employed. It was shown that even when nuclear power generation was not used, the carbon-dioxide emissions in the whole country and a power generation sector are reducible by 37% and 47% in 2050 from the 1990 level, respectively. However, when nuclear power generation was phase-out and renewable energy and natural gas were substituted, it was found that an average power generating cost was higher than the case where use of nuclear or coal was continued, 3.7 yen/kWh or more. Moreover, in the case where immediate cessation of the nuclear power generation was carried out, it was also shown that a current average power generating cost rose by 4.4 yen/kWh. In order to evaluate and visualize the influence of power supply composition change on both the average power generating cost and the carbon-dioxide emissions, a new mapping method was proposed where diversity of an energy source, the carbon-dioxide emissions, and the average power generating cost were used as indexes. Based on the result of model analysis, when nuclear power generation was substituted with renewable energy, natural gas, or coal, oligopoly of an energy source was shown to increase sharply by abolition of nuclear power generation. These results showed that by continuing use of the nuclear power generation with a fixed scale, less carbon-dioxide emissions, avoiding oligopolization of an energy source and suppressing the steep rise of an average power generating cost were possible.

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