Estimation of source term uncertainty in a severe accident with correlated variables

Zheng, X. ; Ito, Hiroto; Tamaki, Hitoshi ; Maruyama, Yu 

Integral severe accident code MELCOR 1.8.5 has been applied to estimating uncertainty of source term for the accident at Unit 2 of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant and to discussing important models or parameters influential to the source term. Forty-two parameters associated with models for the transportation of radioactive materials were chosen and narrowed down to 18 through a set of screening analysis. These 18 parameters in addition to 9 parameters relevant to in-vessel melt progression obtained by the preceded uncertainty study were inputted to the subsequent sensitivity analysis by Morris method. This one-factor-at-a-time approach can preliminarily identify inputs which have important effects on an output, and 17 important parameters were selected from the total of 27 parameters through this approach. The selected parameters have been integrated into uncertainty analysis by means of Latin Hypercube Sampling technique and Iman-Conover method, taking into account correlation between parameters. Cumulative distribution functions of representative source terms were obtained through the present uncertainty analysis assuming the failure of suppression chamber. Correlation coefficients between the outputs and uncertain input parameters have been calculated to identify parameters of great influences on source terms, which include parameters related to models on core components failure, models of aerosol dynamic process and pool scrubbing.