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Togawa, Orihiko; Okura, Takehisa; Kimura, Masanori; Nagai, Haruyasu
JAEA-Review 2021-021, 61 Pages, 2021/11
JAEA-Review-2021-021.pdf:3.72MB
Triggered by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, there have been a lot of arguments among various situations and levels about utilization of atmospheric dispersion models for a nuclear emergency preparedness and response. Most of these arguments, however, were alternative and extreme discussions on whether predictions by computational models could be applied or not for protective measures in a nuclear emergency, and it was hard to say that these arguments were politely conducted, based on scientific verification in an emergency response. It was known, on the other hand, that there were not a few potential users of atmospheric dispersion models and/or calculation results by the models within the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and outside. However, they seemed to have a lack of understanding and a misunderstanding on proper use of different kinds of atmospheric dispersion models. This report compares an outline of models and calculation method in atmospheric dispersion models for a nuclear emergency preparedness and response, with a central focus on the models which have been developed and used in the JAEA. Examples of calculations by these models are also described in the report. This report aims at contributing to future consideration and activities for potential users of atmospheric dispersion models within the JAEA and outside.
Cs concentrations from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, phase III; Simulation with an identical source term and meteorological field at 1-km resolutionSato, Yosuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Fang, S.*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Qu
rel, A.*; Qulo, D.*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 7, p.100086_1 - 100086_12, 2020/10
The third model intercomparison project for investigating the atmospheric behavior of Cs emitted during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident (FDNPP-MIP) was conducted. A finer horizontal grid spacing (1 km) was used than in the previous FDNPP-MIP. Nine of the models used in the previous FDNPP-MIP were also used, and all models used identical source terms and meteorological fields. Our analyses indicated that most of the observed high atmospheric Cs concentrations were well simulated, and the good performance of some models improved the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The analyses also confirmed that the use of a finer grid resolution resulted in the meteorological field near FDNPP being better reproduced. The good representation of the wind field resulted in the reasonable simulation of the narrow distribution of high deposition amount to the northwest of FDNPP and the reduction of the overestimation over the area to the south of FDNPP. In contrast, the performance of the models in simulating plumes observed over the Nakadori area, the northern part of Gunma, and the Tokyo metropolitan area was slightly worse.
Iwasaki, Toshiki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Watanabe, Akira*; Suzuki, Yasushi*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Morino, Yu*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment, 214, p.116830_1 - 116830_11, 2019/10
Times Cited Count：6 Percentile：25.16(Environmental Sciences)The utilization of numerical atmospheric dispersion prediction (NDP) models for accidental discharge of radioactive substances was recommended by a working group of the Meteorological Society of Japan. This paper is to validate the recommendation through NDP model intercomparison in the accidental release from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Emission intensity is assumed to be constant during the whole forecast period for the worst-case scenario unless time sequence of emission is available. We expect to utilize forecasts of surface air contaminations for preventions of inhalations of radioactive substances, and column-integrated amounts for mitigation of radiation exposure associated with wet deposition. Although NDP forecasts have ensemble spread, they commonly figure out relative risk in space and time. They are of great benefit to disseminating effective warnings to public without failure. The multi-model ensemble technique may be effective to improve the reliability.
Cs from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident; Simulations based on identical input dataSato, Yosuke*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Uchida, Junya*; Goto, Daisuke*; Qulo, D.*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(20), p.11748 - 11765, 2018/10
Times Cited Count：40 Percentile：84.54(Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences)A model intercomparison of the atmospheric dispersion of Cs emitted following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident was conducted by 12 models to understand the behavior of Cs in the atmosphere. The same meteorological data, horizontal grid resolution, and an emission inventory were applied to all the models to focus on the model variability originating from the processes included in each model. The multi-model ensemble captured 40% of the observed Cs events, and the figure-of-merit in space for the total deposition of Cs exceeded 80. Our analyses indicated that the meteorological data were most critical for reproducing the Cs events. The results also revealed that the differences among the models were originated from the deposition and diffusion processes when the meteorological field was simulated well. However, the models with strong diffusion tended to overestimate the Cs concentrations.
Cs plumes from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant; Evaluation of the model intercomparison data of the Science Council of JapanKitayama, Kyo*; Morino, Yu*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Hayami, Hiroshi*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Saito, Kazuo*; Shimbori, Toshiki*; Kajino, Mizuo*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(14), p.7754 - 7770, 2018/07
Times Cited Count：25 Percentile：69.93(Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences)We compared seven atmospheric transport model results for Cs released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. All the results had been submitted for a model intercomparison project of the Science Council of Japan in 2014. We assessed model performance by comparing model results with observed hourly atmospheric concentrations of Cs, focusing on nine plumes over the Tohoku and Kanto regions. The results showed that model performance for Cs concentrations was highly variable among models and plumes. We also assessed model performance for accumulated Cs deposition. Simulated areas of high deposition were consistent with the plume pathways, though the models that best simulated Cs concentrations were different from those that best simulated deposition. The ensemble mean of all models consistently reproduced Cs concentrations and deposition well, suggesting that use of a multimodel ensemble results in more effective and consistent model performance.
Kawamura, Hideyuki; Furuno, Akiko; Kobayashi, Takuya; In, Teiji*; Nakayama, Tomoharu*; Ishikawa, Yoichi*; Miyazawa, Yasumasa*; Usui, Norihisa*
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 180, p.36 - 58, 2017/12
Times Cited Count：11 Percentile：34.92(Environmental Sciences)This study simulates the oceanic dispersion of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 by an oceanic dispersion model and multiple oceanic general circulation models. The models relatively well reproduced the observed Cs-137 concentrations in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans. Multiple simulations in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans consistently suggested that Cs-137 dispersed along the coast in the north-south direction during the first few months post-disaster, and were subsequently dispersed offshore by the Kuroshio Current and Kuroshio Extension. Quantification of the Cs-137 amounts suggested that Cs-137 actively dispersed from the coastal and offshore oceans to the open ocean, and from the surface layer to the deeper layers in the North Pacific.
Saito, Kimiaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kinase, Sakae; Takemiya, Hiroshi
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO
, 59(6), p.40 - 44, 2017/06
no abstracts in English
Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi
Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Radioactivity in the Environment, p.15 - 18, 2005/10
The previous version of Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI) has been composed of mass-consistent wind field model WSYNOP and particle dispersion model GEARN. Because WSYNOP has no capability to predict meteorological fields, its accuracy and resolution depends on meteorological input data, and it is impossible to treat physical processes realistically. To improve these problems, an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 is introduced and applied to the Chernobyl accident for the verification. Two calculation cases are conducted, CASE-1 a calculation for European region Domain-1, and CASE-2 a domain nesting calculation for Domain-1 and the region around Chernobyl Domain-2. The air concentration and surface deposition of Cs calculated by CASE-1 agree well with the measurements by statistical analysis and comparison for the horizontal distribution. In the result of CASE-2, the detailed distribution of surface Cs deposition around Chernobyl which was impossible to calculate in CASE-1 is predicted with high accuracy.
Cs deposition due to the Chernobyl nuclear accidentTerada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 42(7), p.651 - 660, 2005/07
Times Cited Count：18 Percentile：74.66(Nuclear Science & Technology)The prediction performance of WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information), which consists of the atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN-new, is evaluated by measurements of precipitation and surface deposition of Cs over Europe during the Chernobyl accident. It is concluded that MM5/GEARN-new can predict Cs deposition distribution with good accuracy when accurate precipitation is predicted by using a explicit scheme on cloud microphysics with ice phase processes. High-resolutional calculation is also conducted for the area surrounding Chernobyl by a nesting method. MM5/GEARN-new can predict quite a realistic distribution of Cs deposition around Chernobyl which was not calculated by the previous version.
Terada, Hiroaki; Furuno, Akiko; Chino, Masamichi
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 41(5), p.632 - 640, 2004/05
Times Cited Count：22 Percentile：79.02(Nuclear Science & Technology)The new version of WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is developed by introducing the combination of models, the atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN-new to improve the prediction capability. One of the improvements by the new system is that Environmental contaminations in multi domains are predicted simultaneously, and the other is that more precise physical processes are considered by using predicted meteorological conditions with high resolution in time and space. The performance of the system is evaluated for the test calculations of hypothetical nuclear accident in the East Asia region and the Chernobyl accident. The results of test calculation in East Asia seem to be reasonable and the calculated surface air concentrations of Cs from Chernobyl show good agreement with measurements.
Terada, Hiroaki; Furuno, Akiko; Chino, Masamichi
Proceedings from the International Conference on Radioactivity in the Environment (CD-ROM), 4 Pages, 2002/09
The present study aims to expanding the capability of WSPEEDI, so that it can be applied to atmospheric releases of radionuclides in the world for terrorist attack as well as nuclear accident. A terrorist attack would be possible in any time, any place and any scale. Altough WSPEEDI has already had a function to acquire global meteorological forecasts to generate a geographical map at arbitrary region in the world, it had no capability for simultaneous multi-scale predictions. Thus, the combination of models, non-hydrostatic meteorological model MM5 and atmospheric dispersion model GEARN, is introduced to WSPEEDI. MM5 can forecast local and regional meteorological condition simultaneously by domain nesting calculations. By the input of meteorological condition generated by MM5, GEARN can forecast multi-scale environmental contaminations considering detailed boundary layer and precipitation processes. Using this improved WSPEEDI, we made test calculations assuming a nuclear accident or terrorist attack in Asia.
Homma, Toshimitsu; Inoue, Yoshihisa*; Tomita, Kenichi*
JAERI-Research 2000-049, 101 Pages, 2000/10
JAERI-Research-2000-049.pdf:3.03MB
no abstracts in English
Nagai, Haruyasu; Chino, Masamichi; Yamazawa, Hiromi
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi, 41(7), p.777 - 785, 1999/07
Times Cited Count：13 Percentile：68.41(Nuclear Science & Technology)no abstracts in English
Chino, Masamichi; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Nagai, Haruyasu; Furuno, Akiko
Mathematics and Computation, Reactor Physics and Environmental Analysis in Nuclear Applications, 1, p.1521 - 1529, 1999/00
no abstracts in English
Noguchi, Hiroshi
Purazuma, Kaku Yugo Gakkai-Shi, 73(12), P. 1360, 1997/12
no abstracts in English
Cs discharged into environment due to the accident in the bituminization plant at power reactor and nuclear fuel development corporationChino, Masamichi; Nagai, Haruyasu
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi, 39(8), p.644 - 646, 1997/00
Times Cited Count：1 Percentile：14.47(Nuclear Science & Technology)no abstracts in English
Ishikawa, Hirohiko
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 28(6), p.535 - 546, 1991/06
no abstracts in English
Chino, Masamichi
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi, 32(11), p.1080 - 1086, 1990/11
Times Cited Count：0 Percentile：0.02(Nuclear Science & Technology)no abstracts in English
Chino, Masamichi; Hayashi, Takashi
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi, 32(8), p.799 - 802, 1990/08
Times Cited Count：1 Percentile：40.82(Nuclear Science & Technology)no abstracts in English
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Taiki Osen Gakkai-Shi, 20(3), p.158 - 167, 1985/00
no abstracts in English
