Development of ocean pollution prediction system for Shimokita region; Model development and verification

Kobayashi, Takuya ; Lee, S.; Chino, Masamichi

A three-dimensional model system was developed to predict oceanic dispersions of radionuclides released into the eastern area of Shimokita Peninsula. This system is a combination of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for predicting ocean currents and a particle random walk model for oceanic dispersion of radionuclides. The model was verified by using measured currents, temperature and salinity at the coastal area of Shimokita, Aomori-ken, Japan, where a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant is under construction. The results obtained from simulations area as follows; (1) Wind and the Tsugaru Warm Current entering into the objective region through the Tsugaru Strait significantly affect the structure of current over the region. (2) POM can represent seasonal variations of the Tsugaru Warm Current well with hypothetical oceanographic data. The calculation succeeded to reproduce the coastal mode from winter to spring and the gyre mode from summer to autumn.