Study on a new meteorological sampling scheme developed for the OSCAAR code system

Liu, X.*; Tomita, Kenichi*; Homma, Toshimitsu

One important step in Level 3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment is meteorological sequence sampling, on which the previous studies were mainly related to code systems using straight line plume model and more efforts are needed for trajectory puff model such as the OSCAAR code system. This report describes the development of a new meteorological sampling scheme for the OSCAAR code system that explicitly considers population distribution. A group of principles was set forth for the development of this new sampling scheme, including completeness, stratification, sample allocation, practicability and so on. The calculation results illustrate that although it is quite difficult to idealize stratification of meteorological sequences based on a few environmental parameters the new scheme do gather the most inverse conditions in a single subset of meteorological sequences. The size of this subset may be as small as a few dozens, so that the tail of a CCDF curve is possible to remain relatively static in different trials of the PCA code system.