Failure probability analysis on mercury target vessel
Ishikura, Shuichi*; Shiga, Akio*; Futakawa, Masatoshi ; Kogawa, Hiroyuki ; Sato, Hiroshi; Haga, Katsuhiro ; Ikeda, Yujiro
Failure probability analysis was carried out to estimate the lifetime of the mercury target which will be installed into the JSNS (Japan spallation neutron source) in J-PARC (Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex). The lifetime was estimated as taking loading condition and materials degradation into account. Considered loads imposed on the target vessel were the static stresses due to thermal expansion and static pre-pressure on He-gas and mercury and the dynamic stresses due to the thermally shocked pressure waves generated repeatedly at 25 Hz. Materials used in target vessel will be degraded by the fatigue, neutron and proton irradiation, mercury immersion and pitting damages, etc. The imposed stresses were evaluated through static and dynamic structural analyses. The material-degradations were deduced based on published experimental data. As results, it was quantitatively confirmed that the failure probability for the lifetime expected in the design is very much lower, 10 in the safety hull, meaning that it will be hardly failed during the design lifetime. On the other hand, the beam window of mercury vessel suffered with high-pressure waves exhibits the failure probability of 12%. It was concluded, therefore, that the leaked mercury from the failed area at the beam window is adequately kept in the space between the safety hull and the mercury vessel to detect mercury-leakage sensors.