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Report No.
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Evaluation of ex-vessel steam explosion induced containment failure probability for Japanese BWR

Moriyama, Kiyofumi; Takagi, Seiji; Muramatsu, Ken; Nakamura, Hideo; Maruyama, Yu

The containment failure probability due to ex-vessel steam explosions were evaluated for a BWR Mk-II model plant. The evaluation was made for two scenarios: a steam explosion in the pedestal area, or in the suppression pool. A probabilistic approach, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), was applied for the evaluation of steam explosion loads, in which a steam explosion simulation code JASMINE was used as a physics model. The fragility curves connecting the steam explosion loads and containment failure were developed based on simplified assumptions on the containment failure scenarios. The mean conditional probabilities of containment failure per occurrence of a steam explosion were $$6.4times 10^{-2}$$ for suppression pool and $$2.2times 10^{-3}$$ for pedestal area. Note that the results depend on the assumed range of input parameters and fragility curves that involve conservatism and simplification.

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