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エネルギー生産に関するリスク評価について

On risk assessment of energy production

国井 克彦

Kunii, Katsuhiko

発電などのエネルギー生産が健康や環境に与えるリスクは、今日では無視できないほどに大きくなっている。そこで本報では、まずリスクの評価の現状や課題について知るため情報収集を行った。レポートや文献を情報源とし、おもに発電技術の外部コスト評価(健康や環境リスクの定量化が扱われている)について調べたが、そのほか災害,事故,投資・金融などのリスク及びそれらの産業社会への影響等についても調べた。得られた主な知見は以下の通りである。(1)既往の発電技術の外部コスト評価では、技術やサイトなど評価条件がほぼ同じでも値が大きく異なる場合がある。信頼性も含めて、基礎データ,評価モデル,評価の背景,適用制約などに留意する必要がある。(2)特に現段階では、基礎データが十分蓄積されていないため評価の信頼性は十分とはいえないと考えられる。

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: (1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. (2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data.

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