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A Study about the Certainty Evaluation of Nuclear Transport Parameter II

Yoshino, Naoto; Nomoto, Kosuke*; Matsui, Mikio*; Nashimoto, Yutaka*

There are various uncertainty factors in the safety assessment for the geological disposal of High Level Nuclear Waste. And it is difficult to eliminate these uncertainty factors completely. Then it is important to evaluate the various uncertainty factors quantitatively for the safety assessment of the geological disposal. Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute focused on the groundwater flow analysis and studied about following issues in 2003 in order to quantify the variance of values which obtained by field investigation or numerical analysis. (1)The method to estimate the hydraulic conductivity and quantify the variability of estimated hydraulic conductivity. (2)The quantification of the key parameter's variability based on probability flow rate analysis. (3)Case study by the vertical two dimensional field. Two-dimensional numerical simulation program in which the uncertainty of the reach point in the ground water flow can be estimated was developed in above subjects. In this study, following three issues are studied (1)verification about the variance of the reach point estimated by 2-dimensional simulation program (2)development of 3-dimensional simulation program (3)Case study by 3-dimensional simulation program

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