Study on dilatation of multi-criteria evaluation method (II)

Tabaru, Yasuhiko*; not registered; Sasaki, Shigeo*

In the study on FBR-cycle practical application strategy conducted by JNC, as part of development of evaluation system aiming at comparative evaluation of promising concept for FBR-cycle system, they grade the value of the concepts under the criteria evaluation such as economical efficiency and environmental load. In order that this system functions effectively in selecting promising concepts, we believe that it is important to extend the range of criteria evaluation and improve objectivity and persuasiveness of it. This is why since the last fiscal year we have been studying on evaluation methodology of and investigation examples on external economical efficiency (effects on the environment and human health, safety, energy security, nuclear non-proliferation, etc.) relevant to introduction of FBR, which had not been included in the conventional evaluation of economical efficiency. In this work, we have especially focused on the external economical efficiency relevant to energy security which is peculiar to FBR-cycle and studied on its evaluation methodology and investigation examples. Firstly, we summarized up on the concept and current situation of energy security and the position of nuclear energy in energy security. Then we identified the necessity of clarifying the importance of energy security with the middle-term point of view allowing for deficiency of fossil or uranium resources, and also the importance of the role of FBR as an improvement action for it. Secondly, we studied on the current energy economic model and examined the possibility of applying energy security for quantitative evaluation. As a result, we have concluded that the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) in which fossil resource market around the world is modeled should be effective for quantitative evaluation of long term energy security. Finally, assuming that we will conduct the quantitative evaluation of long term energy security using GTAP model in the future,