Application of decision tree technique to sensitivity analysis for results of radionuclide migration calculations, 2

Nakajima, Kunihiko*; Makino, Hitoshi 

In the safety assessment of geological disposal system, data uncertainty is inherent by the heterogeneity of the field in the natural geological environment and the change of the geological environment condition with the progress in the time and insufficient of understanding and information, and it is difficult to perfectly remove them. It is important to safety assessment that understanding influence of the uncertainty of parameter on the result of the Monte Carlo simulation considering data uncertainty. In our study, examining the range of application and the accuracy of the decision tree analysis technique by various approaches in the sensitivity analysis, and examining the object various results including the maximum value of all doses (others, the time of the maximum value of all doses, the identification of dominant nuclides). As a result, it was shown to be applicable for various purposes using the decision tree analysis technique to the sensitivity analysis.