Study on the worldwide estimation of probabilistic effective dose from intake of marine products

Nakano, Masanao 

The public generally requires worldwide environmental protection. A long-term environmental assessment from nuclear fuel cycle facilities to the aquatic environment also becomes more important to utilize nuclear energy globally. Evaluation of long-term risk including not only in Japan but also in neighboring countries is considered to be necessary in order to develop nuclear power industry. In advance of a multinational assessment of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, a worldwide estimation of probabilistic effective dose due to the atmospheric nuclear tests was carried out as an example. The author successfully simulated the distribution of radionuclides, which was produced by the atmospheric nuclear tests, in seawater and seabed sediment using LAMER (Long-term Assessment ModEl for Radioactivity in the oceans). A part of the LAMER calculated the advection-diffusion-scavenging processes for radionuclides in the oceans in cooperate with an oceanic general circulation model and was already validated for Cs and Pu. The author is challenging to calculate probabilistic effective dose, which is suggested by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, from intake of marine products due to atmospheric nuclear tests using the Monte Carlo method in the other part of LAMER. Although it depended on the deviation of each parameter, the 95th percentile of the probabilistic effective dose was calculated about half of the 95th percentile of the deterministic effective dose in proforma calculation. The probabilistic assessment gives realistic value for the dose assessment of a nuclear fuel cycle facility.