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Report No.
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Assessment of heterogeneous geological environment at Tono -Japanese fiscal year 2004- (Contract research)

Toida, Masaru*; Suyama, Yasuhiro*; Mori, Takayuki*; Inaba, Takeshi*; Sasakura, Takeshi*; Atsumi, Hiroyuki*; Masumoto, Kazuhiko*; Kobayashi, Ichizo*; Iwano, Keita*; Furuichi, Mitsuaki*; Ogata, Nobuhisa 

"Geoscientific research" at the Tono Area is developing site investigation, characterization and assessment techniques for understanding of geological environment. Their important goals are to establish a methodology for analyzing uncertainties in heterogeneous geological environment and to develop investigation techniques for efficiently reducing the uncertainties. The current study proposes a new approach where all the possible options in the models and data-sets, which cannot be excluded in the light of the evidences available, are identified. This approach enables uncertainties associated with the understanding at a given stage of the site characterization to be made explicitly using an uncertainty analysis technique based on Fuzzy geostatistics. This approach supports the design of the following investigation stage and reduces the uncertainties efficiently. In FY H16 the technique has been tested through geological modelling and groundwater analyses with Tono Area case based on current knowledge, to demonstrate its applicability and to compile the knowledge / information required to describe the H17 report. This report can be summarized as follows: (1) The knowledge / information required to describe the heterogeneous characteristics was compiled and connected to uncertainties associated with the characterization of a geological environment using a synthesis diagram. (2) Methodologies for assignment and screening of parameters were developed by using Evidential Support Logic (ESL). (3) Applicability of the techniques could be confirmed with Tono Area case. (4) This report proposed a new methodology that integrates the technique into JAEA ordinary technique to good advantage in the geoscientific research project.

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