シナリオの重要度をわかりやすく提示可能なシナリオ解析手法の整備

Building of a scenario development method to be able to represent the importance of a scenario on geological disposal of HLW in an understandable way

大井 貴夫 ; 稲垣 学; 川村 淳

Oi, Takao; Inagaki, Manabu; Kawamura, Makoto

本研究においては、「重要度」と「わかりやすさ」,「汎用性」を考慮してシナリオ解析の結果を提示する「シナリオの重要度をわかりやすく提示可能なシナリオ解析手法」の概念の検討を行った。本手法を用いてシナリオ解析を行うことにより、重要なシナリオは何か?なぜ、その評価で安全性が主張できるのか?などの評価の信頼性の確保にかかわる情報がよりわかりやすく明示されるようになるだけでなく、個々の研究の役割や研究の関連が示され、地層処分の総合的な性能評価に資する有用な情報が提供されるものと考える。

In this study, a new concept of the scenario development method to be able to represent the importance of a scenario on geological disposal of HLW in an understandable way was examined with considering the versatility. By the carrying out the scenario development using this method, the information relation to the confidence building such as "the reason why the scenario is important scenario", "the argument which is able to claim completely the safety by the assessment according to the scenario" would be represented in the easy-understand format. Furthermore, the useful information for total performance assessment of geological disposal would be given with the role of each study and the relationship between the studies in the assessment.