Derivation of uncertainty parameters by probabilistic inversion; Example of internal dose coefficients

Hato, Shinji; Liu, Q.; Homma, Toshimitsu

The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for the probabilistic safety assessment have be researched in the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). We produces the uncertainty distributions of the OSCAAR's input parameters with the expert judgments which were produced by the probabilistic accident consequences (level 3PSA) implemented joint of EU and USNRC. The expert judgments are consisted of the subjective probability for physical quantities. These quantities questioned to the experts are either the uncertainty of model's input parameters or the uncertainty of model's output related input parameters. The former can apply to the uncertainty analysis, but the latter is need to transform to uncertainty of input parameter by the probabilistic inversion. Our presentation is that produces the uncertainty distribution of input parameters for internal exposure model as an example.