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Report No.

Assessment on long-term safety for geological disposal of high level radioactive waste; Application of probabilistic safety assessment methodology to uncertainties in hypothetical geological disposal system (Contract research)

Takeda, Seiji ; Yamaguchi, Tetsuji ; Nagasawa, Hirokazu; Watanabe, Masatoshi; Sekioka, Yasushi; Kanzaki, Yutaka; Sasaki, Toshihisa; Ochiai, Toru; Munakata, Masahiro ; Tanaka, Tadao ; Kimura, Hideo; Nakayama, Shinichi 

In safety assessment for geological disposal of high level radioactive waste, it is of consequence to estimate the uncertainties due to the long-term frame associated with long-lived radionuclides and the expanded geological environment. The uncertainties result from heterogeneity intrinsic to engineered and natural barrier materials, insufficient understanding of phenomena occurring in the disposal system, erroneous method of measurement, and incomplete construction. It is possible to quantify or to reduce the uncertainties according to scientific and technological progress. We applied a deterministic and a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic method simulation techniques to the uncertainty analysis for performance of hypothetical geological disposal system for high level radioactive waste. This study provides the method to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties with respect to scenarios, models and parameters in engineering barrier system on radiological consequence. The results also help us to specify prioritized models and parameters to be further studied for long-term safety assessment.



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