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高速炉の原子炉スクラムにおける制御棒挿入失敗確率

Failure probability of control rod insertion upon reactor scram of fast reactors

栗坂 健一 ; 鳴戸 健一*; 杉野 哲*

Kurisaka, Kenichi; Naruto, Kenichi*; Sugino, Tetsu*

ナトリウム冷却高速炉の原子炉スクラム失敗事象の発生頻度評価において制御棒挿入失敗確率は感度を有するため、これを適切に推定することは重要である。本報では、「常陽」,「もんじゅ」,制御棒試作体試験並びに類似の信頼性を有すると考えられる国内外PWRでの制御棒によるスクラム動作経験を調査した。その結果に基づき、階層ベイズモデル及びMCMC法を適用して「常陽」及び「もんじゅ」の制御棒挿入失敗確率の推定を行った。さらに、1回正常動作経験を仮定した仮想プラントの失敗確率も推定した。仮想プラントに対する推定の考え方は運転経験を有さない実用炉の評価に応用可能と考えられる。

The failure probability of control rod insertion upon reactor scram is sensitive to the occurrence frequency of the reactor scram failure in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs). The careful estimation of this probability is needed. The present study investigated the field data related to the scram demands and to their failure number. Data sources are "Joyo", "Monju", control rod drive mechanism mockup test that was performed in Japan, and PWRs in Japan and in US. Based on the investigation result, the failure probability of control rod insertion upon reactor scram was estimated for "Joyo" and "Monju" by using the hierarchical Bayes method with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The failure probability was also estimated for a dummy reactor assuming a single success instance in rod insertion. The idea for the dummy reactor could be applied into the probability estimation of a new commercialized SFR having no operating experience.

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