Uncertainty analysis of internal dosimetry using expert judgment and probabilistic inversion

Hato, Shinji*; Homma, Toshimitsu

The goal of this study is to quantify the uncertainty of the internal dose coefficient recommended by ICRP using expert judgment and probabilistic inversion technique. In this study, the transfer coefficients in the biokinetic model were considered uncertainty in internal dosimetry. Their uncertainty distributions were estimated by the probabilistic inversion technique with expert judgment. The formal expert judgment elicitation used in this study was the results from a joint research project with USNRC and EC. The iterative PARFUM method was used as a probabilistic inversion technique. The uncertainty of dose coefficients for ingestion of Cs-137 by adult was analyzed with the estimated distributions.