Study on proliferation time and response time for proliferation resistance evaluation

Kawakubo, Yoko; Inoue, Naoko ; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Kuno, Yusuke; Senzaki, Masao

"Proliferation time" is one of the proliferation resistance measures adopted by the Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems International Forum (GIF) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) evaluation methodology. It is defined as "The minimum time required to overcome the multiple barriers to proliferation". A longer proliferation time would provide the international society with more time to intervene politically in order to dissuade the state from completing its nuclear weapons program. A longer proliferation time would therefore contribute to the enhancement of proliferation resistance. Two methods are considered for judging whether the proliferation time of a subject system is long enough; (1) comparison of the proliferation times between a reference nuclear energy system and the subject system, and (2) comparison between the proliferation time and the response time, which can be defined as the time available to the international society to make a political intervention or the time until the intervention dismantles the nuclear weapons program of the state. This paper focuses on the latter method and examines how the response time can be estimated by reviewing prior incidents.