Loss detection results on stimulated tank data modified by realistic effects

Burr, T.*; Hamada, M. S.*; Howell, J.*; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi

Solution monitoring (SM) is a type of process monitoring (PM) intended to improve nuclear safeguards in facilities such as reprocessing plants. In SM, volume (V) and mass (M) are monitored in each tank-to-tank transfer and during all wait modes for each tank, resulting in residuals that arise by comparing observations to predictions. The main performance measure is the estimated loss detection probability (DP) for material loss scenarios. This report re-estimates DPs when realistic effects are included in simulated data, such as pump carryover, evaporation, condensation, and mixing/sparging. One challenge involves the need for SM to be part of day-to-day assessment without leading to too many alarms, so we widen the control limits to avoid alarming on innocent process variation effects.