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Development of a methodology for the characterisation of long-term geosphere evolution, 1; Impacts of natural events and processes on the geosphere evolution of coastal setting, in the case of Horonobe area

Niizato, Tadafumi  ; Imai, Hisashi*; Maekawa, Keisuke  ; Yasue, Kenichi; Kurikami, Hiroshi  ; Shiozaki, Isao*; Yamashita, Ryo*

A critical issue for building confidence in the long-term safety of geological disposal is to demonstrate the stability of the geosphere, taking into account its likely future evolution. This study aims to establish comprehensive techniques for characterising the overall evolution of coastal sites through studying the palaeohydrogeological evolution in the coastal system around the Horonobe area, Hokkaido, northern Japan. Information on natural events and processes related to the palaeohydrogelogical evolution of the area have been integrated into the conceptual models that indicates the temporal and spatial sequences of the events and processes, such as climatic and sea-level changes, palaeogeography, and geomorphological and geological evolution in the area. The groundwater flow simulation, which is based on the conceputualisation of the long-term geosphere evolution, shows the sensitivities of natural events and processes on groundwater flow properties in a coastal setting.

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