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Report No.

Proliferation risk assessment for large reprocessing facilities with simulation and modeling

Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Demuth, S.*

Proliferation risk assessment has been investigated to develop a performance-based approach in which the likelihood of diversion incidence, as well as the uncertainty of nuclear material accounting, is simultaneously considered to install intrinsic and extrinsic countermeasures in a conceptual design of a future reprocessing facility. A simulation and modeling approach has been applied to evaluate safeguards performance in a facility-level and diversion pathway analysis, which is demonstrated to detect more efficiently a small, protracted diversion that is usually investigated by trend analysis.



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