Evaluation of uncertainties in model parameters for evaluating decommissioning project management data based on JPDR decommissioning experience data

Ishigami, Tsutomu; Sukegawa, Takenori*; Mukai, Masayuki 

In order to safely and efficiently implement decommissioning of nuclear installations, it is important to beforehand predict decommissioning project management data (PMD) and to develop a decommissioning plan based on the predicted results. The PMD prediction is made with PMD evaluation equations including model parameters such as unit work activity coefficients. Although model parameter values developed so far include uncertainties, little evaluation of the uncertainties and resulted uncertainties in predicted PMD has been made. However information on the uncertainties is valuable in flexibly studying and developing a decommissioning plan. We therefore studied and evaluated uncertainties in model parameters by analyzing the JPDR decommissioning experience data. This report describes an evaluation method of the model parameter uncertainties and their evaluated results.