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Report No.

Trial of risk assessment of a hypothetical nuclear facility

Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi

An equation for risk assessment in physical protection is shown by a probability of an adversary attack during a period time, $$P_{A}$$, a probability of system effectiveness, $$P_{E}$$, and consequence value, $$C$$. In addition, $$P_{E}$$ is shown as the multiplication of a probability of interruption of the facility, $$P_{I}$$, by a probability of neutralization by response force, $$P_{N}$$. In this study, it is assumed that an adversary assaults a hypothetical nuclear facility. The new quantification method about $$P_{A}$$ and $$P_{I}$$ in risk evaluation formula is devised, and risk assessment is attempted. In case of $$P_{A}$$, the possibility of assaults against a nuclear facility is discussed by using terrorism data written in the open source database of terrorism, Global Terrorism database (GTD), summarized by University of Maryland. In addition, it is discussed about $$P_{I}$$ by using the way of thinking of a risk assessment tool, EASI, developed by the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). In the hypothetical nuclear facility, the performance of response force, sensors, and communication is expressed quantitatively by probability distribution based on some assumptions.



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