Nuclear security assessment with Markov model approach

Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika

Nuclear security risk assessment with the Markov model applied to random events is performed to explore an evaluation methodology for physical protection in nuclear facilities. Because the security incidences are initiated by malicious and intentional acts, expert judgement and Bayes updating are used to estimate scenario and initiation likelihood, and it is assumed that the Markov model can be applied to incidence sequence