A Probabilistic extension of the EASI model

Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi

The probability of an adversary's interruption, $P_{I}$ , in a specific scenario can be evaluated using a calculation code, Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI). The purpose of this study is to devise a quantification method of $P_{I}$ by considering the influence of uncertainty and variability. Specifically, we attempt to devise a new calculation method of three components of $P_{I}$ : $P(D{_i})$ , $P(C{_i})$ , and $P(R|A_{i})$ . In addition, we seek to design a hypothetical nuclear facility and an adversary's assault scenario and to assess the $P_{I}$ value using our new method. We set the performance data of the facility as temporary values without a real performance test. We attempt to express the uncertainty and variability of each element of the facility using the Monte Carlo method.

Language	:	English
Journal	:	Journal of Physical Security
Volume	:	7
Number	:	2
Pages	:	p.12 - 29
Publication Year/Month	:	2014/03
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Article of JAEA R&D Review	:	A Probabilistic Expression for Physical Protection Performance in a Nuclear Facility; A Quantification Method for Physical Protection Performance[/]
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Registration No. : AA20131020
JAEA Abstracts No. : 42000727
Paper Submission No. : 14355

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