Geosphere stability for long-term isolation of radioactive waste; Geological predictions and their uncertainties

Umeda, Koji; Yasue, Kenichi; Ishimaru, Tsuneari 

Long-term predictions of geological and tectonic disturbances are key issues for the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal, especially on the Japanese Islands. Future geological and tectonic disturbances in Japan can be estimated with relatively high reliability for the next 100,000 years. In this study, mathematical modeling is used to assess how tectonic disturbances influence the present-day and paleohydrogeology of the Kiso valley. In addition, long-term predictions of future hydraulic conditions and their uncertainties are examined by extrapolating temporal changes in groundwater flow.