Challenge to increase confidence in geological evolution models

地質環境の長期変動モデルにおける信頼性向上への取り組み

水野 崇   ; 岩月 輝希  ; 三枝 博光; 加藤 智子 ; 松岡 稔幸; 安江 健一; 大山 卓也 ; 笹尾 英嗣   

Mizuno, Takashi; Iwatsuki, Teruki; Saegusa, Hiromitsu; Kato, Tomoko; Matsuoka, Toshiyuki; Yasue, Kenichi; Oyama, Takuya; Sasao, Eiji

The aim of the study is to provide future direction for increasing GEMs (Geological Evolution Models) confidence based on existing GEMs. JAEA has constructed GEMs in following three steps: (1) Features, Events and Processes (FEP) analysis, (2) Scenario development and (3) Numerical modeling. Base on the current status, we identified three issues for developing reliable GEMs. They are validation of GEMs, handling uncertainty and digitalization/visualization. To these issues, we specified some approaches. For example, revealing and summarizing the argument behind GEMs will be of help to enhancing confidence. This study was carried out under a contract with METI as part of its R&D supporting program for developing geological disposal technology.