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Development of V2UP (V&V plus uncertainty quantification and prediction) procedure for high cycle thermal fatigue in fast reactor; Framework for V&V and numerical prediction

高速炉における高サイクル熱疲労評価に係る不確かさ評価と実機予測を含むV&V手順(V2UP)の整備

田中 正暁  ; 大野 修司  ; 大島 宏之

Tanaka, Masaaki; Ohno, Shuji; Ohshima, Hiroyuki

ナトリウム冷却高速炉における高サイクル熱疲労の数値解析評価の信頼性を確保するため、既存の安全解析を対象とした解析評価の信頼性確保の手法を参照し、PIRTを起点として実機外挿評価までを念頭においたV&V実施計画を策定した。次の5つのカテゴリー((1)PIRTによる現象分析、(2)V&Vの実施(数値解析コード・手法の整備)、(3)検証用試験の設計および配置、(4)各問題に対する不確かさ評価と不確かさの統合、(5)実機予測)からなるV2UPについて、現時点における整備状況と合わせ、その概念について述べる。

A procedure called as V2UP (Verification and Validation plus Uncertainty quantification and Prediction) was made by referring to the existing guidelines on V&V and the methodologies of the safety assessment (CSAU, ISTIR, EMDAP). The V2UP consisted of five components as follows: (1) phenomena analysis with the Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) method, (2) implementation of the V&V, (3) design and rearrangement of experiments for the V&V, (4) uncertainty quantification in each problem and integration of uncertainties and (5) numerical prediction (estimation) for the target issue. Although the complete application of the procedure has not been performed at this moment, a flow chart of the V2UP procedure was described in this paper with recent results of the examinations.

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