Study on next generation seismic PRA methodology, 2; Quantifying effects of epistemic uncertainty on fragility assessment

Nishida, Akemi  ; Takada, Tsuyoshi*  ; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Furuya, Osamu*; Muramatsu, Ken*

This study focused on uncertainty-assessment frameworks and utilization of expertise develops methodology for quantification of uncertainty associated with final results from SPRA in the framework of risk management of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) facilities. This research aimed to contribute to the development of probabilistic models for uncertainty quantification- and software (1); to the aggregation of expert opinions on structure/equipment fragility estimation and development of implementation guidance on epistemic uncertainty (2); and to the study of applicability of newly proposed SPRA models to plant models (3). In particular, we focused on the second goal. There were two different groups of experts used: those in the field of civil engineering, and those in the fields of mechanical engineering. With these groups, we conducted a pilot study on the use of expert-opinion elicitation for identification and quantification of parameters of fragility assessment.