Sensitivity analysis for quantification of uncertainty in fragility evaluation

Nishida, Akemi  ; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*  ; Furuya, Osamu*; Muramatsu, Ken*

This research develops methodology for quantification of uncertainty associated with final results from seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) in the framework of risk management of NPP facilities. In this research, we take a role of aggregation of expert opinion on structure/equipment fragility estimation and development of implementation guidance on epistemic uncertainty (modeling uncertainty). In this report, a trial evaluation result of quantification of uncertainty using analytical results of seismic response analysis and sensitivity analysis for a model plant are shown.