Reliability enhancement of seismic risk assessment of NPP as risk management fundamentals, 3; Sensitivity analysis for the quantification of epistemic uncertainty on fragility assessment

Nishida, Akemi  ; Choi, B.  ; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*  ; Furuya, Osamu*; Muramatsu, Ken*

This study focused on uncertainty-assessment frameworks and the development of relevant software to improve the reliability of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) for NPP and promote its further use. This research aimed at contributing to development of implementation guidelines on epistemic uncertainty. Some sensitivity analyses were performed using a three dimensional reactor-building model and a conventional evaluation model by using 3D vibration simulator for NPP of JAEA, and the results were provided to the experts for expert-opinion elicitation. The results of the sensitivity analyses were related to the uncertainty evaluation of the buildings and soil to evaluate the fragility of the equipment. In this paper, those results will be shown in comparison with a conventional evaluation model.