Reliability enhancement of seismic risk assessment of NPP as risk management fundamentals, 10; Proposal of a new mathematical framework

Muramatsu, Ken*; Muta, Hitoshi*; Furuya, Osamu*; Fujimoto, Shigeru*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*  ; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Nishida, Akemi  ; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*

This project, focusing on uncertainty assessment framework and utilization of expertise, and finally developing relevant computer codes to improve reliability of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) and to promote its further use of the SPRA, develops methodology for quantification of uncertainty associated with final results from SPRA in the framework of risk management of NPP facilities. The following scopes are set. (1) Development of framework of probabilistic models for uncertainty quantification and Computer codes, (2) Aggregation of expert opinion on structure/equipment fragility estimation and development of implementation guidance on epistemic uncertainty (modeling uncertainty), (3) Study on applicability of SPRA to model plant. In this report, new probabilistic models and treatment of epistemic uncertainty will be explained.