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Reliability enhancement of seismic risk assessment of NPP as risk management fundamentals, 2; Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in fragility assessment using expert opinions

Takada, Tsuyoshi*  ; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Nishida, Akemi  ; Furuya, Osamu*; Muramatsu, Ken*

The assessment of seismic safety of nuclear power plant facilities has been performed by identifying and quantifying uncertainties in seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA). For the evaluation process, all uncertainties are classified into either aleatory or epistemic uncertainty for their quantification. In this study, systematic evaluation of the epistemic uncertainty on the seismic fragility of structures and equipment is studied and implemented for a model NPP. There are two expert groups formed in this project: experts in the field of buildings and soil ground (CE experts) and experts in the field of pipe and equipment (ME experts). Along with ample results from relevant sensitivity analyses conducted, elicited opinions are carefully treated and classified into several specific areas and integrated into the form of knowledge tree technique (KTT), all of which can be utilized for future fragility estimation.

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