A method to obtain a hazard curve of a forest fire was developed. The method has four steps: a logic tree formulation, a response surface evaluation, a Monte Carlo simulation, and an annual exceedance frequency calculation. The logic tree consists domains of forest fire breakout and spread conditions, weather conditions, vegetation conditions, and forest fire simulation conditions. The new method was applied to evaluate hazard curves of a reaction intensity and a fireline intensity for a typical location around a sodium-cooled fast reactor in Japan.
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