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Reliability enhancement of seismic risk assessment of NPP as risk management fundamentals; Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in fragility assessment using expert opinions and sensitivity analysis

Choi, B.  ; Nishida, Akemi  ; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*  ; Furuya, Osamu*; Muta, Hitoshi*; Muramatsu, Ken

In this study, we address epistemic uncertainty in structure fragility estimation of nuclear power plants (NPPs). In order to identify and quantify dominant factors in fragility assessment, sensitivity analyses of seismic analysis results are conducted for a target NPP building using a three-dimensional finite element model and a conventional lumped mass model (embedded sway rocking model), and the uncertainty caused by the major factors is then evaluated. The results are used to classify epistemic uncertainty levels in a fragility estimation workflow for NPPs in several stages, and a graded knowledge tree technique, which can be used for future fragility estimations, is proposed.



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