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Environmental dynamics analysis of $$^{137}$$Cs due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident based on the intercomparison of atmospheric dispersion models

Morino, Yu*; Kitayama, Kyo*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Hayami, Hiroshi*; Nagai, Haruyasu ; Terada, Hiroaki  ; Saito, Kazuo*; Shimbori, Toshiki*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Dider, D.*; Mathieu, A.*; Ohara, Toshimasa*; Tsuruta, Haruo*; Ebihara, Mitsuru*; Oura, Yasuji*; Shibata, Tokushi*

For the evaluation of the validity and variability of atmospheric transport model results, we compared results of seven models submitted for the model inter-comparison project of Science Council of Japan to simulate $$^{137}$$Cs released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Model reproducibility was assessed with the observed hourly atmospheric concentrations of $$^{137}$$Cs in Tohoku and Kanto regions. Among nine plumes from 12 to 21 in March 2011, performance of the models was the best for the plume which dispersed over the Kanto region in 15 March. The models generally reproduced the observed $$^{137}$$Cs concentrations in plumes which widely spread inland of Tohoku or Kanto regions. By contrast, the models largely underestimated the observed $$^{137}$$Cs concentrations for the case which passed coastal areas of Japan. Ensemble average of seven models showed reasonable performance for most of plumes, and no individual models reproduced better than the ensemble average.

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