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Hazard curve evaluation for forest fire smoke effects on air-cooling decay heat removal systems

Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa  

This study evaluates a hazard curve of smoke effects generated by a forest fire by applying a new method using a logic tree which consists of variable parameters on a forest fire, weather conditions, types of vegetation and topography, and simulation conditions. A response surface of the smoke spatial density was evaluated using two simulation codes: FARSITE for forest fire propagation and ALOFT-FT for smoke transportation. It is followed by a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the hazard curve representing the annual exceedance frequency of the total amount of the smoke captured on air filters. The evaluated hazard curve is about 1$$times$$10$$^{-2}$$ per year for 3.5 kg/m$$^{2}$$/(m/s).

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