Total cross section model with uncertainty evaluated by KALMAN

Hashimoto, Shintaro  ; Sato, Tatsuhiko   

Particle transport simulation codes based on the Monte Carlo technique have been successfully applied to shielding calculations in accelerator facilities. Estimation of not only statistical uncertainties, which depend on the number of trials, but also systemic uncertainties, which are caused by uncertainty of total cross section models, is required to confirm the reliability of the simulation results. We evaluated unclear quantities of internal parameters included in the total cross section model by the KALMAN code, which is based on the least squares technique, comparing with experimental data of the total cross section. The uncertainties in the total cross sections obtained by the new model are comparable to the experimental errors. In the present study, the systematic uncertainty included in the simulation results can be estimated by performing the transport calculations with variation of the internal parameters within their unclear quantities.