Development of an external radiation dose estimation model for children returning to their homes in areas affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Mori, Airi; Takahara, Shogo  ; Yoshida, Hiroko*; Sanada, Yukihisa   ; Munakata, Masahiro 

On 1 April 2017, evacuation orders in large areas were lifted. To estimate external radiation doses to children after returning to these areas, a dose estimation model based on a probabilistic approach has been developed. Validation of the model in an area for which individual personal dosimetry measurements were available show that it is valid for infants, kindergarteners, 3rd to 6th grade elementary school students, and junior high school students. As a result of our estimations, 95th percentile doses to all age groups were less than 20 mSv y in period from 2017 to 2020 and in all areas. Doses in some areas were less than 1 mSv y, which is the long-term dosimetric target set by Japanese government. It is noted that our results are preliminary. To estimate doses to the children precisely, further considerations for assumptions and limitations on the environmental contamination conditions and behavioral patterns of children will be needed.