Estimation of air dose rate using measurement results of monitoring posts in Fukushima Prefecture

Seki, Akiyuki   ; Mayumi, Akie ; Wainwright-Murakami, Haruko*; Saito, Kimiaki  ; Takemiya, Hiroshi; Idomura, Yasuhiro   

We developed a method to estimate the temporal change of the air dose rate at the location with sparse (in time) measurements by using the continuous measurement data from the nearby monitoring post. This method determines an observation model from the correlation between sparse data at the target location and dense data at the monitoring post based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. The developed method was validated against the air dose rate measured at the monitoring posts in Fukushima prefecture from 2012 to 2017. The results showed that the developed method can predict the air dose rate at almost all target locations with an error rate of less than 10%.