The FM(C)T; When and how to realize it?

Kumekawa, Hirokazu; Tsuboi, Hiroshi*; Unesaki, Hironobu*

Since FM(C)T was proposed, nearly three decades have passed. Although numerous proposals have been made by many governments, institutions and experts, there has been no sign of convergence of opinions toward its realization. In the meantime, the TPNW entered into force in January 2021, which accentuates the gap between the global desire for the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons and the hard reality. Realization of the FM(C)T is even more expected as a practical step for narrowing the gap. Although various proposals for the realization of FM(C)T were well summarized in the report by the high-level fissile material cut-off treaty expert preparatory group in 2018, it clearly indicates that further effort is needed in formulating proposals to bridge the existing gaps among various proposals based on the analysis of diverse opinions. Thus it could be concluded that, for the realization of the FM(C)T, what is missing is a strategy or logical steps to converge the diverse opinions into a consolidated proposal that should serve as a springboard for discussion. As the opinions are so diverse, it is impossible to satisfy all the relevant parties completely. There must be some level of compromises that each State has to make in order to bring the FM(C)T into reality. The questions should be how to prepare an optimal and realistic proposal that maximizes the chance to be agreed among key member states. The NPT has established a norm for nuclear non-proliferation together with comprehensive safeguards agreements and the norm is being further strengthened through the universalization of additional protocols. Compared with the effort for enhancing nuclear non-proliferation, advancement of nuclear disarmament has stagnated. Although the idea for TPNW was proposed after that for an FM(C)T, the TPNW has been realized. Compared with the TPNW, FM(C)T should be much more achievable target. From the historical perspective, the leadership of leading nations is now tested.