Quantitative risk assessment with CMMC method on abnormal snowfall incident for a sodium-cooled fast reactor

Nakashima, Risako*; Koike, Akari*; Sakai, Takaaki*; Doda, Norihiro  ; Tanaka, Masaaki  

In development of a quantitative risk assessment method to the external hazards for a sodium-cooled fast reactor, a dynamic PRA using the Continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method was performed to evaluate the effect of global warming on the probability of exceeding the temperature limit as a core damage factor. There is a possibility that the amount of snowfall in abnormal snowfall events will increase due to global warming in the future. A hazard curve of snowfall considering global warming was developed. The results show that the probability of exceeding the temperature limit is increased by the abnormal snowfall events due to global warming.