Approach comparison of uncertainty treatment in PRA and dynamic PRA

Zheng, X. ; Tamaki, Hitoshi ; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an approach to quantifying risk of accidents including their stochastic uncertainties and consequences. However, because of inadequate understanding of phenomena, PRA results involve epistemic uncertainties. In this study, from the perspective of probability-of-frequency, we compared approaches of conventional PRA and dynamic PRA. Dynamic PRA has the advantages in the treatment of dependencies between accident progression and failure modes, so it is an advanced approach possible to mitigate epistemic uncertainties.

Language	:	Japanese
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Meeting title	:	日本原子力学会2022年秋の大会
Held date	:	2022/09
Location (city)	:	日立
Location (country)	:	日本
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Keywords	:	PRA; 動的PRA; 偶然的不確かさ; 認識論的不確かさ; 頻度の確率分布
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Article of JAEA R&D Review	:
Cooperating Institute	:	原子力規制庁

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Registration No. : BB20220513
JAEA Abstracts No. :
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