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Report No.

Hypothetical scenarios resulting in radioactive material dispersion from Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP) using four different weather patterns

El-Asaad, H.; Chirayath, S.*; Hecker, S.*; Fuhrmann, M.*

Evaluating the consequences of nuclear security threats - like the intentional sabotage of a nuclear power plant - is the main focus of this research. This study utilizes the simulations of radioactive material release and dispersion due to potential sabotage events or nuclear accidents using state-of-the-art computer code called WSPEEDI-DB developed by the JAEA. This study runs a "what-if" scenario by conducting a preliminary evaluation on the consequences due to a potential sabotage event at the ZNPP by performing simulations of radioactive material release. Plume patterns from simulations made for four selected days for the potential sabotage event were the days selected corresponding to the two seasonal solstices and two equinoxes. The release period for all the simulations was 48 hours. The radiation dose rates on the ground due to the plume dispersion and deposition ranged from 1 to 1000 micro-Gray per hour. The highly radioactive plumes would likely cause public panic, health risks, and mass evacuations in the affected countries.



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