Research on factor analysis and technical process for achieving denuclearization; Denuclearization of Former Soviet Union (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine)

Tazaki, Makiko ; Kimura, Takashi ; Shimizu, Ryo ; Nakatani, Takayoshi ; Suda, Kazunori 

As part of the "Research on Factor Analysis and Technical Processes for Achieving Denuclearization", we investigated denuclearization cases in three former Soviet Union countries, namely Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, and analyzed the cases by eight denuclearization factors. We then considered the characteristics and lessons learned from such denuclearization. The denuclearization processes of the three countries differed from country to country, and Ukraine's denuclearization process in particular went through many twists and turns. However, the common factor was that all nuclear-weapon states provided security assurances to the three countries and as a result, they transferred strategic nuclear weapons to Russia and joined the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear weapon states. Such decision was partly made possible by the economic and physical assistance provided by the United States and Russia for denuclearization. Furthermore, one of the characteristics of the denuclearization of the three countries is the US's skillful denuclearization strategy toward the three countries. The United States supported the claims that the three countries, like Russia, were parties to the First Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-I), and ultimately allowed them to transfer strategic nuclear warheads to Russia within the framework of START-I and the subsequently achieved the disposal of the warheads in Russia. Furthermore, as a lesson from the denuclearization of the three countries, providing security assurance to denuclearized countries is a strong incentive for denuclearization. However, considering Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, countries which are required denuclearization will seek stronger security guarantees from nuclear-weapon states. Another lesson is that it is necessary to have a strong presidential initiative the countries concerned.