Selection method for observation points using Bayesian LASSO at estimating radiation source distribution from air dose rates

Yamada, Susumu  ; Machida, Masahiko  ; Tanimura, Naoki*

When we decommission a reactor building, it is desirable to identify the radiation source distribution for safety. It has been reported that the source distribution can be estimated from the measured air dose rates at appropriate observation points by minimizing an evaluation function using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). However, it is difficult to decide on suitable points in advance. Therefore, we estimate the posterior distribution from the prior distribution of the source amounts, which are calculated by the standard LASSO, using the Bayesian LASSO, and evaluate the predictive distribution of the evaluated air dose rates at the candidate observation points from the posterior distribution. We select the additional observation point based on the variances of the predictive distributions. We confirmed that the method can estimate the source distribution with fewer additional observation points than when adding ones randomly in most cases.