Development of a prediction model for ambient dose equivalent rate distribution based on ecological half-life profiles using LASSO regression and KURAMA data

Shikaze, Yoshiaki ; Saito, Kimiaki  ; Tanimura, Naoki*; Yoshimura, Kazuya  ; Liu, X.; Machida, Masahiko  

The two-component model, comprising a fast-decay and a slow-decay component, has been widely used to approximate the decreasing trends of air dose rates in contaminated areas surrounding major nuclear accident sites. However, its adequacy is yet to be thoroughly validated. This study analyzed extensive car-borne survey data collected from 2011 to 2016 after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression with a high-degree-of-freedom model. This analysis aimed to evaluate the adequacy of the two-component model and investigate the profiles of ecological half-lives. Next, future predictions of air dose rate distributions were made using a prediction model formula that incorporated the average ecological half-life profiles calculated for each land-use and initial air dose rate category. Prediction accuracy was verified through comparison with integrated map data, which merge air dose rate datasets obtained using different monitoring methods and represent the most currently reliable source. In this paper, we present the results of the analysis of the above environmental half-life profiles and the evaluation of the predictive model calculations, and discuss the reasons that led to these results.