Development of importance measures reflecting the risk triplet in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; The Concept and measures of risk importance

動的PRAにおけるリスクトリプレットに基づいたリスク重要度指標の開発; リスク重要度の概念と指標

成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*; Zheng, X. ; 玉置 等史 ; 柴本 泰照 ; 丸山 結 ; 高田 毅士  

Narukawa, Takafumi*; Takata, Takashi*; Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Shibamoto, Yasuteru; Maruyama, Yu; Takada, Tsuyoshi

Despite the advancements in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methodologies that account for the dynamics of event progression, the development of risk importance measures for such methodologies remains a significant research challenge, particularly in terms of fully capturing the rich, multidimensional risk information provided by dynamic PRA. This study proposes novel risk importance measures from the perspective of the risk triplet: Timing-Based Worth (TBW), which captures the scenario occurrence timing (scenario diversity), Frequency-Based Worth (FBW), which reflects the likelihood of scenarios, and Consequence-Based Worth (CBW), which represents the consequences of scenarios. These three measures are formally defined, and a conceptual framework for integrated importance evaluation is presented to enable multidimensional assessment. As a preliminary demonstration, TBW and FBW are applied to a simplified reliability model using a dynamic PRA based on the continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method to evaluate their interpretability and the coherence of the proposed conceptual framework. The results demonstrate that TBW and FBW enable a more comprehensive risk importance evaluation by capturing resilience effects and temporal diversity, alongside existing frequency-based evaluations. This advancement is expected to enhance the practical use of dynamic PRA outputs in risk-informed decision-making.