Sustainable management for Japan's cedar stands towards national carbon neutrality

Ota, Masakazu  ; Takagi, Kentaro*; Liang, N.*; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki*; Koarashi, Jun   

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, Japan is revitalizing forestry. However, it is unclear what specific forest management method should be implemented. Using a numerical model, here we explore carbon balance and economy of currently feasible managements for Japanese cedar plantation, the Japan's most economically important stand. We show that a repetition of 45-year rotation cycle most sequesters carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, also generating highest revenue from wood production. Applying this management to domestic cedar stands contributes 35%-73% of Japan's 2030 interim target of carbon dioxide absorption by forests, offsetting 1.4%-3.0% of national net emission target. However, sustainability of the management depends on subsidies, requiring over two-thirds of forestry costs. These indicate continued and sufficient support for the forestry sector is necessary to enable Japan's cedar stands to significantly contribute to carbon neutrality.